M1nt-l0u 1,235 Posted May 27, 2019 So given that the Brexit party mopped up the EU elections, that puts quite a bit of pressure on the Conservatives to elect someone who will take us out of Europe by October 31st. If that doesn't happen then I think the Brexit party will immediately gain more support, enough to have a decent number of seats in parliament. The only way the Conservatives can prevent his from happening is to take the UK out of the EU without a deal. Any other outcome will see a surge of Brexit party voters. It's also important to note that they aren't just "a party to get us out" but they are proposing to change how MPs are elected too. So my prediction for a possible Farage PM (based on not leaving by Oct 31st) would be to promise the following: No deal exit First past the post changed to PR X amount of billions put back into the NHS, possibly from doing something trivial like cutting foreign aid Police officer numbers restored Immigration controls similar to Australia What are your thoughts on the last few days? Quote Share this post Link to post
Quinn 643 Posted May 27, 2019 (edited) 2 hours ago, Mintlou said: So given that the Brexit party mopped up the EU elections, that puts quite a bit of pressure on the Conservatives to elect someone who will take us out of Europe by October 31st. If that doesn't happen then I think the Brexit party will immediately gain more support, enough to have a decent number of seats in parliament. The only way the Conservatives can prevent his from happening is to take the UK out of the EU without a deal. Any other outcome will see a surge of Brexit party voters. It's also important to note that they aren't just "a party to get us out" but they are proposing to change how MPs are elected too. So my prediction for a possible Farage PM (based on not leaving by Oct 31st) would be to promise the following: No deal exit First past the post changed to PR X amount of billions put back into the NHS, possibly from doing something trivial like cutting foreign aid Police officer numbers restored Immigration controls similar to Australia What are your thoughts on the last few days? even with a substantial % of the votes brexit party will not get many seats because of fptp a recent poll from PANELBASE (love polling company names) on 24th april predicted LAB: 31% (-5) CON: 21% (-6) BREX: 19% (+6) LDEM: 13% (+5) GRN: 5% (+2) CHUK: 4% (-) UKIP: 3% (-2) which works out to ~9 seats for brexit party yep, 2% predicted vote share difference with a predicted 190 seat difference thems the breaks even while labour are refusing to come out in favour of remain or leave they're polling better than any other party in this poll we can see 2017 general election results, how 2019 european election voters voted nationally and then how they voted in the eu election. look where labour's vote is going. on top of that the leave vote is much more concentrated than the remain vote ONTOP OF THAT 2ND REFERENDUM POLLING labour will win the next general election unless there's fallout over their brexit policy from remain voters if they come out in favour of remain they will eviscerate the tories you're completely deluded if you think nigel farage could be pm with those 'promises' you're also completely deluded if you think nigel farage is gonna put any money into the nhs https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-nhs-might-have-to-be-replaced-by-private-health-insurance-9988904.html https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/12/farage-calls-for-private-health-firms-to-relieve-burden-on-nhs australian style immigration would be an unpopular policy no one really cares about PR Edited May 27, 2019 by Quinn 1 1 Lucy and Sir_Conor reacted to this Quote Share this post Link to post
Fluxy 1,660 Posted May 27, 2019 (edited) Once again Scotland and England showing completely identical voting patterns and political standpoints. Honestly so glad we are a UNITED kingdom where decisions on the future of our nation are made in an inclusive and considerate way towards ALL members of this GREAT Britan. Go democracy!1!11 Edited May 27, 2019 by Fluxy 1 Sir_Conor reacted to this Quote Share this post Link to post
M1nt-l0u 1,235 Posted May 28, 2019 19 hours ago, Quinn said: no one really cares about PR *Labour and Conservative don't care about it because it has supported their victories over the past several decades. I think this is so hard to predict because there are those who voted to remain, but still accept that a democratic choice has to be implemented. If you add those people to the ones who voted leave I reckon you'd still just about see the same referendum result if we had another one tomorrow. When you throw that together with a general election, you've got one clear choice for the party that will deliver a no deal brexit, the Brexit party. And there isn't really one clear choice for one that wants something that opposes that option. You've got: another referendum, a people's vote on the outcome or a party that will say "a vote for us is a vote to revoke article 50". There are so many watered down options for not wanting Brexit VS the one party option to actually implement it that I can't see a majority coming from any of the remain leaning parties. People's trust of Labour has diminished somewhat because Corbyn has outright flipped his opinion on what he'd do in real time after seeing the mess May has made of it. I believe those who say "no deal isn't an option" are forever damaging the trust of the electorate. In the last 3 years no one has agreed on any kind of deal, what makes anyone think they can get more out of the EU after the shambolic attempts from May? It won't happen. It just keeps on delaying the whole process, boiling the tempers of the voters who will come out in force to the party that says it will end it all by a clean cut no-deal alternative. It's a breath of fresh air rather than "we will leave on 29th March" x108 then not actually doing it. Any Tory leader candidate that is promising that we won't leave under a no-deal scenario is just playing career suicide. Jeremy Hunt, Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are all doing this. The clock will run out and we'll either extend it again or get some wish wash crap that we can all agree no one voted for. Unless you want Brexit party to break some records, the UK must leave without a deal. Quote Share this post Link to post
Quinn 643 Posted May 28, 2019 19 minutes ago, Mintlou said: *Labour and Conservative don't care about it because it has supported their victories over the past several decades. the uk is cucked people think FPTP leads to strong government or whatever pr is popular but its not as popular as it should be and isn't gonna win nigel farage number 10 28 minutes ago, Mintlou said: I think this is so hard to predict because there are those who voted to remain, but still accept that a democratic choice has to be implemented. If you add those people to the ones who voted leave I reckon you'd still just about see the same referendum result if we had another one tomorrow. When you throw that together with a general election, you've got one clear choice for the party that will deliver a no deal brexit, the Brexit party. And there isn't really one clear choice for one that wants something that opposes that option. You've got: another referendum, a people's vote on the outcome or a party that will say "a vote for us is a vote to revoke article 50". "well there's only one party with a clear policy so they're the best" is a fucking infantile way of thinking about it how is having ANOTHER vote undemocratic, especially when people now have more information# anything that isn't a referendum on the deal would be ridiculous 30 minutes ago, Mintlou said: People's trust of Labour has diminished somewhat because Corbyn has outright flipped his opinion on what he'd do in real time after seeing the mess May has made of it. I believe those who say "no deal isn't an option" are forever damaging the trust of the electorate. In the last 3 years no one has agreed on any kind of deal, what makes anyone think they can get more out of the EU after the shambolic attempts from May? It won't happen. It just keeps on delaying the whole process, boiling the tempers of the voters who will come out in force to the party that says it will end it all by a clean cut no-deal alternative. It's a breath of fresh air rather than "we will leave on 29th March" x108 then not actually doing it. still polling on top bitch tories fucking hemorrhaged votes to brexit party, labour lost to lib dems and greens, it doesn't matter if labour coming out pro remain meant more votes lost to brexit party because brex vote is so unconcentrated and would need to be ridiculously high to actually translate into seats if a bunch of hardline crackpots crash the uk out of the european union on an imagined mandate for an outcome so few people want it will be a fucking tragedy Quote Share this post Link to post
M1nt-l0u 1,235 Posted May 28, 2019 When you argue like an adult, I'll put more time into a proper reply. Insulting me when I gave my genuine opinion on the matter is quite unnecessary. Quote Share this post Link to post
SonyTwan 1,208 Posted May 28, 2019 tbh u got owned by quinn @Mintlou Quote Share this post Link to post
Quinn 643 Posted May 28, 2019 (edited) @Mintlou ur a dribbling moron this isn't debate club if you spout nonsense ur not entitled to a LE PROPER ADULT RESPONSE u fuckin chud i cited FACTS motherfucker cold hard POLLS all you brought to the table was the huge gap between ur ears Edited May 28, 2019 by Quinn Quote Share this post Link to post
Danny 1,225 Posted May 29, 2019 Referendums are a fucking awful idea. It doesn't have a legally binding mandate. Voters are a bunch of dumb cunts. Half the fucking people don't even vote in the bastards. No one respects the results, blames x y and z. FPTP is fucking retarded. When TACTICAL VOTING IS A THING, TIME TO CHANGE YOUR JOKE OF AN ELECTORAL SYSTEM. Quote Share this post Link to post
Wist 376 Posted May 29, 2019 13 hours ago, Quinn said: @Mintlou ur a dribbling moron this isn't debate club if you spout nonsense ur not entitled to a LE PROPER ADULT RESPONSE u fuckin chud i cited FACTS motherfucker cold hard POLLS all you brought to the table was the huge gap between ur ears Quinn 'I never take baits as I am a living genius' Lord 1 Kai reacted to this Quote Share this post Link to post
M1nt-l0u 1,235 Posted May 29, 2019 This is an interesting video and probably the first time I agree with Tony Blair. He's absolutely correct on this: Quote Share this post Link to post
M1nt-l0u 1,235 Posted May 31, 2019 Why was I stupid enough to think a 20 minute video would capture the attention of people on this forum. Silly me. Discussion over I guess. Quote Share this post Link to post
SonyTwan 1,208 Posted May 31, 2019 remember when mintlou unironically supported ukip Quote Share this post Link to post
Wist 376 Posted June 1, 2019 17 hours ago, Mintlou said: Why was I stupid enough to think a 20 minute video would capture the attention of people on this forum. Silly me. Discussion over I guess. You’re trying too hard 1 Lucy reacted to this Quote Share this post Link to post